There are a lot of reasons to get into Amateur Radio, some of them good, some less so.
At Orlando Hamcation, I had my booth next to Preppcom. This is an interesting radio that is specifically designed for disaster communications, not mere emergency communications because those operations are predominantly radiotelephone. But CW is known to get through in situations where ‘phone doesn’t – although one of the newer digital modes would probably work even better.
The Preppcom radios provide a keyboard and graphical interface for CW operations without requiring the operator to actually know the Morse code. It looks well designed for that purpose, but not really the right radio for the purpose of introducing the operator to the broader world of Amateur Radio.
A subsection of their web site provides devices meant for use in the case of an EMP: deliberate use of high-altitude nuclear weapons to disable electronic devices and thus, disable many of the capabilities of an operating civilization. It’s fair to say that by labeling this section “EMP”, this is marketing to customers who are preparing for the apocalypse, although the actual effect of an EMP and the efficacy of various purported protections against one are both arguable.
I met two of the Preppcom staff, very nice ladies one of which was the director of manufacturing. There was also a man there whom I did not meet, who tended to sit at a table in the booth with his back turned to the audience passing by. He might want to reconsider that for his next show.
I don’t remember if I mentioned to the Preppcom folks that I was the founder of No-Code International, and was at least in part responsible for the fact that their customers are not required to pass a Morse code exam, the way I was required to pass a 20 WPM test for my Extra class license.
Across from Preppcom was American Contingency Ham Radio Network, the ham radio branch of American Contingency. These organizations bill themselves as emergency preparedness organizations, but in my experience the Amateur Radio organizations that actually run emergency preparedness with community government, Red Cross, hospitals, and industry are not American Contingency and their ham radio branch. American Contingency started out with scary enough communications for FBI to label them a terrorist group, which they have of course denied. They have toned down their public communications since the January 6 US Capital attack, but the “contingency” they were talking about back then was the fall of government and/or war with people who aren’t like white, Christian Americans.
I didn’t see much traffic at that booth. Even in Florida. But there is some community of Radio Amateurs whom, I think it’s fair to say, are getting ready for internal war or the fall of civilization. Some of them want it to happen. I think those folks have a perception that they’d come out on top.
What I’d like to discuss is just how realistic their expectations are.
Long before COVID, I had a year’s food supply and 12,000 gallons of fresh water in the pool. I supplemented that supply at the start of COVID, but didn’t really get to use any of it. So, I am not against preparing for disaster. But I try to be realistic about the actual outcome in a real disaster. I’m in one of the places that had electric power shut-offs on days with high potential for forest fire, so I had to stockpile fuel and generators too.
That food, water, fuel, and whatever else I have makes me a target. And in a real collapse of the rule of law, it would not matter what my defensive capabilities were. Ultimately a fixed location is not defensible in such a condition, and that has been true since feudal times. If nothing else were to happen first, I’d eventually be burned out. High-value moving targets like RVs and off-road vehicles present the same problem, even worse. They advertise what you have to everyone you pass.
For many preppers, the defensive capability they have is guns. Lots of them, and lots of ammunition. There may be a false assumption among them that the folks they’d be fighting don’t have guns. The reality is that all of those folks are completely aware of what the other side has and have prepared themselves, but smart people don’t ever talk about their defensive capabilities. Not even to their friends.
In a disaster situation, the people around you are at least as well armed as you, and there are as many of them as you and your radio friends, and whatever capability you get from your guns is neutralized.
Add to that all of the things that it doesn’t work to shoot: fire, gas and chemicals, disease, starvation, thirst.
Consider the effect of desperation. People will do anything when their children are hungry, and they want what you have. And there are enough of them that you will eventually lose a fight.
Finally, look around at any Amateur Radio conference. What you see are fat old white guys. And fat old sick white guys. Not really the best warfighters any longer. Many of us won’t live all that long without access to the things civilization provides: nutritious food, clean water, medications and medical care, electric power for our medical devices. Most of us would be gone soon enough without those things, even if we didn’t die by violence first.
The US has already had the January 6 insurrection. People in that event were treated with total kid gloves: only one was shot, almost every one was allowed to leave safely, and for the most part those who have been prosecuted were arrested long after the fact. They were incredibly over-optimistic, and they lost. Whatever misguided thing they thought they’d achieve on that day, they didn’t achieve, didn’t even get close. They just hurt and killed some poor cops and themselves. In the aftermath, in court, they mostly look inept and so many confess to having been severely misguided.
What protected them is the fact that since the Kent State shootings in 1970, the government has been reluctant to prepare its own forces to respond with violence to an internal situation. But we can’t expect even local governments to make that mistake a second time. A similar altercation today would be responded to with tear gas at the start, automatic weapons later, and the high “ground” would belong to the government and its aircraft.
Does anyone expect the fight will be as nice next time? Especially in a fall-of-government situation? Nobody would be pulling punches.
So my opinion is Sorry, Preppers: it’s great that you’re preparing for less severe emergencies, but if government were to fall, you’d pretty quickly be dead. Sorry. Have another reason to get your ham license.